Determinantes da oferta de arroz no Brasil: uma análise estatística de 2014 a 2024

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the main factors that determined the supply of rice (Oryza sativa) in the Brazilian domestic market between 2014 and 2024. The research investigated, in particular, to describe the evolution of national production and the destination of the rice supply (domestic or foreign market), identify the main determinants of supply and statistically deepen the correlation between the selected variables and the quantity supplied domestically. For this purpose, secondary data were used, treated through descriptive analysis, normality test, Spearman correlation and multiple linear regression. The results showed that national rice production showed stability during the analyzed period, while variables such as exports, prices and exchange rate showed high volatility. It was possible to observe that exports and average domestic prices of rice showed a negative correlation with domestic supply, revealing that the external appreciation of the grain may have driven producers to prioritize the international market, to the loss of domestic supply. Linear regression validated that production and exports were statistically important variables to explain supply. As a contribution, the analysis links the economic theory of production to the real process of the Brazilian rice sector, presenting subsidies for public policies that aim to balance profitability and food security.