Ancoragem das expectativas de inflação e o caso brasileiro

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to present the state of the art regarding the concepts and definitions of inflation expectations anchoring in the academic literature. Additionally, based on the methodology proposed by de Mendonça et al. (2020), the study calculates the inflation expectations anchoring index for the period from January 2005 to December 2024, using data from the Focus Bulletin. Anchoring is interpreted as the Central Bank’s ability to align economic agents' expectations with the inflation target, serving as an indicator of the credibility and effectiveness of monetary policy. In this regard, it is observed that despite the consensus on the benefits of anchored expectations for combating inflation, there is a wide variety of concepts and methods to assess this phenomenon, such as anchoring relative to the target or to inflation shocks, highlighting the complexity of the subject. Concerning the Brazilian case, the results show that, between 2005 and 2014, expectations remained largely anchored, with episodes of complete de-anchoring occurring mainly between 2014 and 2015, and again from 2020 onwards, following the COVID-19 pandemic. The index reveals greater volatility and fragility in anchoring in recent years, suggesting a weakening in the conduct of monetary policy. The study contributes by highlighting the importance of expectation stability for the effectiveness of the inflation-targeting regime and the ongoing need for actions that reinforce the Central Bank’s credibility in the eyes of economic agents.