Esforço fiscal, dependência do FPM e desenvolvimento socioeconômico do território tabuleiros do alto Parnaíba

Abstract

Municipal financial autonomy is a fundamental premise of Brazilian fiscal federalism. However, the high dependence on intergovernmental transfers, such as the Municipal Participation Fund (FPM), can compromise this autonomy and limit local development. Therefore, the question arises as to how this dependence relates to a municipality's own revenue-raising capacity and development. This work aims to analyze the relationship between dependence on the FPM, fiscal effort, and socioeconomic development in the municipalities of the "Território dos Tabuleiros do Alto Parnaíba" in Piauí, from 2013 to 2021. The study adopts a mixed-method approach, combining descriptive and econometric analysis, using secondary data from "Finanças do Brasil" (Finbra), the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), and the Federation of Industries of the State of Rio de Janeiro (Firjan). Using time series regression and the calculation of dependence and fiscal effort indices, 11 municipalities were examined. The results indicate an average dependence of 31.59% on the FPM, with 63.64% of the municipalities classified as having a medium dependence on the FPM. The average Firjan Municipal Development Index (IFDM) was 0.4047, considered low. A moderate negative correlation was identified between FPM dependence and development (-0.517), while the relationship between fiscal effort and dependence proved to be insignificant (-0.0026). It is concluded that the FPM acts more as a subsistence mechanism than as an inducer of development, with the low capacity to transform own-source revenue into well-being pointing to structural and local management limitations. The study's implications suggest the need to reformulate the FPM criteria, incorporating incentives for fiscal efficiency and spending quality, as well as promoting planning policies that strengthen inter-municipal cooperation and regional economic diversification as strategies to overcome dependence and foster sustainable development.